Put another way, there were about 309 people shot and killed in 2011 in NYC (for UCR reasons we're talking incidents, so this is a bit of an undercount). In 2013: 188. That's a huge decrease. (2014 saw 184.)
If you look at all other city homicides (ie: non-gun), they're down a little. But the decrease in NYC is all about fewer people shot. Did New Yorkers get together in 2011 and decide to stop shooting each other? I missed that meeting. Was it because of Occupy? Or because Occupy was broken up? Did anti-police protests somehow reduce gun violence? I doubt it. But something happened, and I don't know what it is.
Oddly, the NYPD didn't take credit for this crime drop because it coincided with anti-police protests and the end of stop and frisk. Cops and Kelly and those on the right were certain -- hoping even -- that crime was going to skyrocket. They've been saying that since at least 2012. Well, it's 2016.
Here is some UCR homicide data from 2014 (if you hold your breath for 2015, you'll turn blue and pass out):
New York City: 56 percent of homicides are by gun, 26 percent by knife ("or cutting instrument"). Nationwide is 68% gun, 13% knife.
A few other cities:
Baltimore: 75% gun, 18% knife.Here's the percentage of NYC homicides that were gun-related at various years (UCR data):
Chicago: 87% gun, 7%knife.
Los Angeles: 73% gun, 13% knife.
1990: 74% of homicides by gunSo maybe that's not the issue. Honestly? A five-percent decrease since 1997 ain't such a big deal. But my gut tells me a 5-percent slow but steady drop since 2011 does mean something.
Of course it *is* related to gun control. But as any 2nd-Amendment-loving Trump-loving patriot will tell you (often in all caps) "CHICAGO HAS GUN CONTROL!!!!" And Chicago, if this is too subtle for you, has a lot of killings.
So maybe, at least this is what I think, gun control isn't about gun laws as much as actual prosecution and deterrence. New York is the only city where people believe -- mostly correctly I might add -- that illegal gun possession will bring you real time.
What if it were that simple?