[Updated to include 2017 data.]
From 2015 through 2017, 175 people were murdered in Baltimore's Western District. 115 were black men age 18 to 34. 38.3/year. This is about twice as high as the pre-2015 rate. Based on a total population of 38,000, there are approximately 4,500 black men aged 18 to 34 in the Western District. So the annual homicide rate for 18-to-34-year-old men in the Western District over the past three-years is 852 per 100,000. (The national homicide rate is now about 6 per 100,000; Baltimore's is 50.)
What does a murder rate of 852 mean? Well, here's a survival function:
1 - (1 - r)^xThis means that if homicide levels don't drop, a 17-year-old man in the Western District will have a 13.6 percent chance of being murdered before he reaches the age of 34. The numbers before 2015 weren’t great. Actually, they were pretty terrible; but they were better.
r is the death rate and x is number of years. The death rate is 1 in 117.37 or .008547. The number of years from 18 to 34 is 17.
So 1 - (1-.008547)^17 =0.1358.
One-in-seven men murdered?! I don't know what else to say.
[I thought of some things to say in my next post.]